Revisiting 2010 political crystal ball report

1. New York state's budget

What we said: The Legislature and the governor must close a structural deficit (or, in plain English, stop spending billions more than the state takes in) by April 1, the start of the new fiscal year. Or they can again postpone the inevitable with borrowing and accounting gimmicks.

What we predicted: Gov. David Paterson proposes massive cuts, special interests cry catastrophe, and the Legislature and the governor pass an irresponsible budget, congratulating themselves for insignificant reforms. Three months later, the state is in the red again.

What happened: The governor became a lame duck and used a novel strategy to pass the state's $136.5 billion budget with raw cuts but little structural reform. The budget passed four months late as legislators added a tax on clothing. Three months later, the state said a $315 million budget deficit had developed.

2. New York City's budget

What we said: Spending for the fiscal year beginning July 1, 2010, is set to exceed revenues by about $4 billion, more than 6% of the total budget. Yet Mayor Michael Bloomberg and most of the City Council don't want to raise taxes again.

What we predicted: The council rules out sales and property tax hikes, but members backed by the pro-union Working Families Party demand a new income tax on the wealthy. The mayor opposes it; the state Senate won't authorize it. Layoffs ensue.

What happened: No sales or property taxes increased. Labor's demand for a millionaire's tax went nowhere. There were layoffs, but many were avoided because the mayor froze teacher salaries instead. Teachers and administrators continue to work without a contract.

3. Race for governor

What we said: State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo must decide whether to run against Mr. Paterson, who insists he'll seek re-election. The Republicans must come up with a candidate.

What we predicted: At a press conference in southeast Queens, Mr. Cuomo, flanked by African-American supporters, announces his candidacy as his campaign fund swells to $20 million. Mr. Paterson runs for Congress in Harlem, as his neighbor Rep. Charles Rangel decides to retire. Mr. Cuomo thumps former Rep. Rick Lazio, who gives up on politics.

What happened: Mr. Cuomo indeed raised $20 million and handily beat unknown Republican Carl Paladino (but not before an early poll showing a tight race sent Mr. Cuomo into the arms of his disaffected African-American supporters.) Mr. Lazio gets his thumping—but it's from Mr. Paladino in the primary.

4. Race for U.S. Senate

What we said: The Republicans covet the seat of Kirsten Gillibrand, who is seen as vulnerable in her first statewide election. But GOP biggie Rudy Giuliani has ruled out a 2010 run, and George Pataki shows little interest in running.

What we predicted: Ms. Gillibrand's poll numbers will slowly improve, then jump as she unleashes an eight-figure television advertising blitz and campaigns relentlessly. The GOP settles on unknown Larchmont Mayor Liz Feld as its candidate, but she cannot raise enough money to beat Ms. Gillibrand.

What happened: Liz Feld bowed out and Republicans nominated another long shot: 1980s-era House member Joseph DioGuardi. Ms. Gillibrand raised $13 million, and Mr. DioGuardi struggled to scrape two nickels together. He lost badly.

5. Race for state comptroller

What we said: Democratic incumbent Thomas DiNapoli, after two years in office, is still a “huh?” to most voters. His is the most winnable statewide seat for Republicans.

What we predicted: Republican John Faso, who ran for governor in 2006, downshifts to the comptroller's race and peels off enough swing voters to nip Mr. DiNapoli.

What happened Mr. Faso declined to run, and political first-timer Harry Wilson came out of nowhere with nearly $4 million of his hedge fund money and a r�sum� that includes saving General Motors. He came within 4 percentage points of beating Mr. DiNapoli—by far the closest statewide race.